Big in Japan

2009 Android Predictions

Could 2009 be Android’s year?  If Alex is right it just might be.  Here is a repost of his thoughts from his post titled, “Louis Gray Predicts 9,000,000 Android Phones in 2009!”

Louis Gray posted his “10 Predictions for 2009 in the World of Tech“.  His fifth prediction is that Android will have less than 20% of iPhone sales in 2009.  Assuming this is true, that could mean as many as 9,000,000 people will adopt a phone that uses the Android operating system like T-Mobile’s G1.  This is amazing.  The iPhone sold 9,300,000 units in its first full year, if Louis is correct I think you would have to call Android a hit!

I have been preparing my keynote presentation for AndroidDevCamp in Amsterdam next week and have been compiling some statistics (all based on published, non-NDA related information).  I think they are instructive:

• Apple sold 1,000,000 iPhones in 74 days (120 if you count activated phones)
• T-Mobile reportedly has sold 1,000,000 G1s in 71 days (no idea how many are activated)

- G1 has outsold iPhone (in same time period)

This is especially amazing if you consider that AT&T has 65.7 million U.S. users compared with T-Mobile’s 25 million U.S. users.  Android has a three-to-one advantage in penetration:

• 1.5% of AT&T users had an iPhone 74 days after launch
• 4.0% of T-Mobile users had a G1 71 days after launch

- G1 has 3-1 better penetration rate than iPhone (in same period)

The more interesting statistic is that T-Mobile has more than 100 million users in the EU (that is more than T-Mobile and AT&T combined in the US).  What do you think this will mean for Android adoption when T-Mobile unleashes the G1 in Europe?  The sale price of the G1 and the iPhone were roughly the same in the US – $179 versus $199 or so – no real advantage either way.  In Europe, where their is no history of carriers subsidizing the cost of handsets, T-Mobile has announced that the handset will be free with a two or three year contract.  Here are my thoughts for EU penetration in Q1 2009 (based on US iPhone 1.5% penetration and US G1 4% penetration):

• Low side: 1,500,000 G1 handsets sold in EU Q1 2009 (based on iPhone penetration history)
• Mid-range: 4,000,000 G1 handsets sold in EU Q1 2009 (based on G1 penetration history)
• High side: 6,000,000 G1 handsets sold in EU Q1 2009 (based on Free handset deals)

- G1 is poised for a blow out year in 2009

While Louis might be right, I have a feeling first year adoption of Android may be even higher than the iPhone’s first year adoption.  Why?  Very simple, Android has a first year market size of 125,000,000 users (T-Mobile) while Apple’s first year market size was only 67,500,000 users (AT&T).  Additionally, T-Mobile customers seem to be more likely to switch from their dated feature phone to the new G1 as evidenced by their higher penetration numbers.  Add on the fact that T-Mobile is going to subsidize the phone in a MUCH bigger market I have a feeling Android might explode in 2009.  “iPhone, meet train…” (of course NONE of these numbers are worth repeating – they are almost all conjecture based on third-party reports – but they seem to be ‘relative’ and thus worth thinking about)

Posted by arharp | January 1, 2009 - 12:49pm3 Comments
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